Africa sees drop in passenger traffic

Even though airports reported an increase of 4.0% in international passenger traffic and an increase of 5.1% in domestic traffic in June 2016, international passenger traffic grew faster than the domestic component during the first six months of 2016 (6.0% versus 5.4%). The lower than expected growth rates during June 2016 in international traffic in Europe and the slowdown in the Middle East testified to the fragile and uncertain economic conditions, political instability and passenger sensitivity to the wave of terrorist attacks. These events weighed on travel confidence and air transport demand.

Except for Africa where the drop in passenger traffic was apparent and anticipated (-4.4% year-to-date), all regions posted growth in passenger volumes, ranging from 1.7% in the recessionary Latin America-Caribbean region to the buoyant Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions, which both grew strongly at 8.8% on a year-to-date basis. The mature markets of Europe and North America both grew 4.9% during the first half of the year.

Air freight markets were substantially weaker than passenger markets, posting marginal 0.5% growth in total freight on a year-to-date basis, largely due to a subdued growth in emerging markets and developing economies and a modest recovery in advanced economies (4.1% and 1.8% in GDP respectively, as projected by the International Monetary Fund for 2016). The 0.5% growth rate in global freight volumes comprised +0.3% in international freight and +1.0% in domestic freight on an annualized basis. The lackluster performance of global industrial activity and trade due to China's economic transition, the weak growth of the Japanese economy and the weaker than expected growth of the United States, combined with recessions in Brazil and Russia, have all had a negative impact on air freight markets. Three regions plunged into negative territory in terms of year-over-year changes in freight volumes on a year-to-date basis. North America, Latin America-Caribbean and Africa reported freight traffic losses of 2.1%, 0.9% and 0.1% respectively. Asia-Pacific and Europe reported  freight traffic growth of 1.0% and 2.3% respectively, while only the Middle East grew a confident 4.5% over the course of the first six months in 2016.

Africa 

Africa continued to face challenges despite its economic growth prospects in the years to come. Security risks in Northern Africa curtailed traffic at major tourist destinations while plummeting oil prices stunted the economic progress of such key economies as Nigeria. Weak overall demand across the continent, poor connectivity within the continent and a poor record of liberalizing aviation represented additional obstacles to prospective growth in traffic levels.

In Africa, passenger traffic decreased 11.8% in June 2016 and 4.4% from January to June. Passenger traffic was negatively affected by the disruption of air traffic in Egypt and significant traffic drops in Tunisia, the major leisure destinations for European travelers. Security in Egypt remained a major concern following the October 2015 crash of a Russian airliner in Sinai and the Egypt Air accident in May 2016. From January to June 2016, passenger traffic at Egypt's and Tunisia's airports fell 27.4% and 14.4% respectively. Other countries that reported traffic losses in the region were Congo (-17.3%), Mozambique (-6.9%) and Zambia (-2.8%). South Africa—the major air transport market in Africa—reported a robust 7.3% growth rate during the first half of the year, with domestic passenger traffic outpacing international traffic (8.5% and 4.9% respectively). In Morocco, total passenger traffic grew 0.4%, the result of 5.5% growth in domestic passenger traffic. Other important markets—Nigeria, Kenya and Algeria—reported 2.7%, 8.2% and 10.7% traffic increases respectively. International passenger traffic in Kenya and Algeria grew a robust 8.4% and 9.9% respectively during the first six months of 2016.

At the individual airport level, high traffic growth was seen at Johannesburg (JNB, +5.8% or +0.54 million passengers year-to-date), Cape Town (CPT, +8.0% or +0.36 million passengers year-to-date) and Algiers (ALG, +10.7% or +0.34 million passengers year-to-date).

Total freight traffic in Africa increased 0.7% in June compared with the previous year and declined 0.1% during the first six months of 2016. On a country-by-country basis, the picture is consistent with the total figure. Modest growth in air freight traffic in South Africa (+2.2%) was not enough to offset air cargo traffic dips in other major markets, such as Egypt (-7.4%), Kenya (-6.9%) and Nigeria (-1.7%).