in Air Transport

2036 forecast reveals air passengers will nearly double to 7.8 Billion

Posted 26 October 2017 · Add Comment

IATA expects 7.8 billion passengers to travel in 2036, a near doubling of the 4 billion air travelers expected to fly this year.

The prediction is based on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) noted in the release of the latest update to the association’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast.

"All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity. The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It’s fantastic news for innovation and prosperity, which is driven by air links. It is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand," said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

A number of risks to the forecast have been identified. Maximizing the potential benefits of aviation growth will depend on current levels of trade liberalization and visa facilitation being maintained. If trade protectionism and travel restrictions are put in place, the benefits of air connectivity will decline as growth could slow to 2.7%, meaning 1.1 billion fewer passenger journeys annually in 2036. Conversely, if moves towards liberalization increase, annual growth could be more than two percentage points faster, leading to a tripling in passengers over the next 20 years.

"Increasing demand will bring a significant infrastructure challenge. The solution does not lie in more complex processes or building bigger and bigger airports but in harnessing the power of new technology to move activity off-airport, streamline processes and improve efficiency. Through partnerships within the industry and beyond, we are confident that sustainable solutions for continued growth can be found," said de Juniac.  
 
The aviation industry has adopted a robust strategy to reduce its environmental impacts, particularly its carbon emissions. "No industry has done more to meet its environmental obligations than aviation. Our tough targets to achieve carbon-neutral growth from 2020 and to cut our CO2 emissions to half-2005 levels by 2050 are backed by a comprehensive strategy. Our immediate aims are to work with governments to increase the production of sustainable aviation fuels, and to deliver air traffic management efficiencies, which promise significant emissions savings. And from 2020, a Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) will play a major role in meeting our carbon-neutral target," said de Juniac.      
 
 
Fast-growing markets
 
The five fastest-growing markets in terms of annual additional passengers in 2036 compared to 2016 will be
China (921 million new passengers for a total of 1.5 billion) 
US (401 million new passengers for a total of 1.1 billion)
India (337 million new passengers for a total of 478 million) 
Indonesia (235 million new passengers for a total of 355 million) 
Turkey (119 million new passengers for a total of 196 million).
 
Many of the fastest-growing markets are achieving a compound growth rate of more than 7.2% per year, meaning their market will double in size each decade. Most of these markets are in Africa, including: Sierra Leone, Benin, Mali, Rwanda, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Senegal, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Tanzania, Malawi, Chad, Gambia and Mozambique. 
 
Africa will grow by 5.9%. By 2036 it will see an extra 274 million passengers a year for a total market of 400 million passengers.
 
* required field

Post a comment

Other Stories
Advertisement
Latest News

Airbus Commercial Aircraft delivers record performance

Airbus’ Commercial Aircraft deliveries in 2017 were up for the 15th year in a row, reaching a new company record of 718 aircraft delivered to 85 customers.

Four start-ups apply for Comorian operating licences

Four start-up carriers have applied to the Comorian government for operating licences involving both domestic and international services, ch-aviation.

Africa World Airlines to add B767s for intercontinental routes

Africa World Airlines co-chairman Togbe Afede XIV has confirmed the Ghanaian carrier will introduce widebody aircraft to service intercontinental routes, reports ch-aviation.

Embraer reaches 2017 delivery outlook

Embraer delivered a total of 210 jets in 2017, of which 101 were commercial aircraft and 109 were executive jets (72 light and 37 large).

Afriqiyah suffers damage as Tripoli Airport closes

Security services closed Tripoli's M'etiga international airport after the Libyan national carrier, Afriqiyah had a number of aircraft damaged yesterday in gun battles that saw 16 people killed and 48 people injured/

IS-BAH achieves century milestone

The International Business Aviation Council (IBAC) has announced its International Standard for Business Aircraft Handling (IS-BAH) programme has reached 100 registered handler locations since it was introduced in July 2014.

Aviation Africa SK18418
See us at
Aviation Africa BT18418Global Aerospace BT010518